Through this subscription only modelling platform, Vision Illawarra provides a state-of-the-art regional growth model developed with the Geonamica Platform. Stepping away from traditional trend analysis, this model integrates demographic, economic, land use and transport dynamics as endogenous processes, allowing for more realistic projections. Modelling outputs from various regional scenarios are available in this section.
The Vision Illawarra modelling platform allows planners and policy makers to utilise Vision Illawarra to understand the holistic change that a planning or policy decision will bring to the regional setting. This enables smarter and strategic decisions for the benefit of the region. This information is gathered through five interlinked modules looking at how demographic and economic factors impact and inform land use, regions and transport.
Vision Illawarra Model
The above Vision Illawarra model is initialised by the economic module. This macroeconomic simulation model uses census data (2006 and 2011) and ABS data taken from the different economic sectors at the regional and national levels to project employment in the Illawarra region between 2012-2036.
For demonstration purposes, the model tests three scenarios:
- Baseline: Illawarra industries follow the short run and long run trends that were in evidence prior to 2011
- Economic Downturn: Due to negative economic situations, the Metal sector decreases employment by 2,500 people between 2011 and 2016 (such as the sharp decrease that happened in BlueScope).
- Bright Future: the negative shock specified in Scenario 2 but the government supports other industries including construction, tourism, health and education between 2017 and 2021.
- $19 million investment in construction sector which results in 350 more jobs in this sector
- $149 million investment in tourism which will lead to an increase of 200 in accommodation and food services employment and 200 in transport
- $130 million investment in education sector which will result in 800 more jobs in this sector
- $72 million investment in health sector which leads to 790 more jobs in this sector
In total, scenario 3 includes a total investment of $370 million into the region which increases the employment of the region by 2,340.
The effects of 2 major infrastructure upgrades are modelled for each scenario:
- Road improvement – the new Albion Park bypass road
- Densification – rezoning for densification of housing along the Princes Highway, north of Lake Illawarra